临床儿科杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 154-155.doi: 10.12372/jcp.2026.25e1569

• 专家点评 • 上一篇    下一篇

回顾性研究的价值与局限

张军   

  1. 上海交通大学医学院附属新华医院 环境与儿童健康教育部和上海市重点实验室(上海 200092)
  • 收稿日期:2025-12-11 录用日期:2026-01-01 出版日期:2026-02-15 发布日期:2026-02-02

The value and limitations of retrospective studies

ZHANG Jun   

  1. Ministry of Education-Shanghai Key Laboratory of Children's Environmental Health, Xinhua Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200092, China
  • Received:2025-12-11 Accepted:2026-01-01 Published:2026-02-15 Online:2026-02-02

摘要:

本期刊发的刘晓阳等作者撰写的《足月妊娠孕周与不良围产结局的相关性分析:一项基于43 502 名中国孕产妇的回顾性队列研究》一文,以基于四川大学华西第二医院13 123例单胎足月、自然分娩产妇的临床数据为基础,系统分析了37+0~41+6周内不同分娩时机对新生儿结局的影响,并指出39+0~40+6周为不良结局风险较低的“窗口期”。本研究思路明确、统计方法先进,尤其在处理孕周与结局的非线性关系上采用了限制性立方样条模型,具有较高的临床参考价值。然而,作为一项回顾性研究,其在因果推断、混杂控制与外推性方面也存在一定的局限性。本文结合对该研究报告的点评,就回顾性研究的价值和局限作出概要分析。

关键词: 足月妊娠, 不良围产结局, 回顾性研究, 价值与局限

Abstract:

The article of "The association of gestational age at term and adverse perinatal outcomes: a retrospective study based on 43502 Chinese pregnant women" by Liu Xiaoyang and co-authors published in this issue, was based on the clinical data of 13,123 singleton full-term and natural delivery mothers from West China Second University Hospital of Sichuan University. It systematically analyzed the impact of different delivery timings within 37+0 to 41+6 weeks on neonatal outcomes, and pointed out that 39+0 to 40+6 weeks is a "window period" with a relatively low risk of adverse outcomes. This study had a clear research idea and advanced statistical methods, especially in handling the non-linear relationship between gestational age and outcomes, it adopted the restricted cubic spline model, which had high clinical reference value. However, as a retrospective study, it also had certain limitations in causal inference, confounding control, and generalizability. This article, in combination with the review of this research report, makes a summary analysis of the value and limitations of retrospective studies.

Key words: full-term pregnancy, adverse perinatal outcomes, retrospective study, value and limitations

中图分类号: 

  • R72