回顾性研究的价值与局限
收稿日期: 2025-12-11
录用日期: 2026-01-01
网络出版日期: 2026-02-02
The value and limitations of retrospective studies
Received date: 2025-12-11
Accepted date: 2026-01-01
Online published: 2026-02-02
本期刊发的刘晓阳等作者撰写的《足月妊娠孕周与不良围产结局的相关性分析:一项基于43 502 名中国孕产妇的回顾性队列研究》一文,以基于四川大学华西第二医院13 123例单胎足月、自然分娩产妇的临床数据为基础,系统分析了37+0~41+6周内不同分娩时机对新生儿结局的影响,并指出39+0~40+6周为不良结局风险较低的“窗口期”。本研究思路明确、统计方法先进,尤其在处理孕周与结局的非线性关系上采用了限制性立方样条模型,具有较高的临床参考价值。然而,作为一项回顾性研究,其在因果推断、混杂控制与外推性方面也存在一定的局限性。本文结合对该研究报告的点评,就回顾性研究的价值和局限作出概要分析。
张军 . 回顾性研究的价值与局限[J]. 临床儿科杂志, 2026 , 44(2) : 154 -155 . DOI: 10.12372/jcp.2026.25e1569
The article of "The association of gestational age at term and adverse perinatal outcomes: a retrospective study based on 43502 Chinese pregnant women" by Liu Xiaoyang and co-authors published in this issue, was based on the clinical data of 13,123 singleton full-term and natural delivery mothers from West China Second University Hospital of Sichuan University. It systematically analyzed the impact of different delivery timings within 37+0 to 41+6 weeks on neonatal outcomes, and pointed out that 39+0 to 40+6 weeks is a "window period" with a relatively low risk of adverse outcomes. This study had a clear research idea and advanced statistical methods, especially in handling the non-linear relationship between gestational age and outcomes, it adopted the restricted cubic spline model, which had high clinical reference value. However, as a retrospective study, it also had certain limitations in causal inference, confounding control, and generalizability. This article, in combination with the review of this research report, makes a summary analysis of the value and limitations of retrospective studies.
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